Econometric evaluation of the dependence of factors influencing oil prices

It is for a long time oil since an energy source has got crucial role for the development of the countries. Economy of the all countries create demand to oil and oil products. It has been already extracting oil in more than hundred countries. Oil volume and its prices is always in the limelight of the consumers and producers. Changing of the oil prices affects production indicators in all areas of the economy as well as the level of the prices.Political issues also affect oil prices taking into account the reason of the neccesity of oil and oil prices in the vital fields of the economy.Therefore prediction of the oil prices is always in the limelight of the oil producer and consumer countries as well as the politicians. From this point of view prognosis of the oil prices is in the agenda as a urgent problem. Oil prices also have got impact on the formalization of the prices of the alternativ energy products. Exact prediction of the oil prices is very complex. Prediction of the well-known international institutions about the oil prices has been considerably deviation from the real facts. Nevertheless investigations is continuning in this direction. Complexity of the prognosis of the oil prices is related the impact of political issues to oil prices as well as economic factors. More deviation of the prognosis of the oil prices is observing in the crises and the political ambitions. For main purpose it is necessary to fulfill the following problems: • To decompose and learn the factors which influence oil prices; • Analysis of the prognosis with ARIMA,TREND and HOLT methods; • To collect data and fulfill descriptive analysis; • To establish an econometric model for dependence of oil price on factors, including non-qualitative factors those influence as well and defining the significant factors through proper tests. Dynamics of the oil prices are influenced by some factors those may be decomposed as follows: • Economic(World GDP growth, economic growth of USA, China and India, oil production volume etc); • Natural climate; • Military-political (intergovemental conflicts etc.). Recently economic growth factor of high demographicly developed China and India will increase its importance in forecasting of the oil prices. In the research linear-logarithm trend model of the dependence of the daily oil prices on the influencing factors was econometrically evaluated and defined that in spite of increase propensity of the daily oil prices between 0.022 % and 0.025%, some new factors has changed this positive increase to negative. These factors include liquidatation of the prohibition of oil exports of the USA and Iranian oil exports to world markets.