Clean Energy Policy Options; Modeling Possible Deployment Scenarios

Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) has commissioned a number of research projects to carry out techno-economic assessments of clean energy power generation options, including efficient fossil fuel (ff) thermal and renewable energy (RE) plants. The objective of the assessments is to explore the potential capabilities and ranks of different clean technologies in meeting future energy demand in Kuwait. KISR, in close collaboration with the Kuwait National Nuclear Energy Committee (KNNEC), Ministry of Electricity & Water (MEW) and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), completed the development of a TIMES-VEDA Kuwait Power and Water model (KPW). The multi-sector model was used to investigate future scenarios for power generation involving cost effect fossil fuel switching and RE energy technology options. The KPW model was constructed to represent the projected demands; the existing and planned power generation, and water desalination plants within the energy system of Kuwait. The representation included; the expected retirement of existing plants, future ff prices and availability. This was extended to include parameters for comparing assumed lower demand growth, lower oil and gas prices, higher RE costs or lower availability, RE capacity credit and higher plant investment costs under a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) optimization approach. The TIMES-VEDA KPW model time horizon covers the period from 2008 (the base year) and extending out to 2050, with emphasis focusing on the period of 2010 to 2030. The model identifies least-cost energy system configurations that satisfy all of the system constraints. The analysis shows that RE technologies provide complimentary fuel saving and emission reductions to fossil technology. The 2030 cost-effective electrical power generation share is 10%, given the projected costs for RE technologies. Increasing the RE target share to 20%, increases the 2030 costs by US8.3 billion. Higher capacity credit for solar PV and CSP technologies with storage increases the cost-effective RE shares to more than 9% and results in slightly higher investment in those technologies. RE, thus, contributes to fuel and emissions savings without necessarily compromising the reliability of the power system, seeing that the excess capacity already in place by the time it comes in. This paper presents the overview concept of establishing the KPW model and its construction approach. It discusses details of the methodology for conducting policy analysis, and a summary of the case study results related scenario analysis conducted during the modeling process. see above see above