Modeling Process of Decision Making on Selection of Investment Projects in Fuzzy Circumstances

Decision making on selection of investment project is one of the necessary stages of project analysis. At this stage, a multiplicity of investment projects, various interlinkages and characteristics are ana-lyzed usually. In a general case, when there are a number of variations of a single project or a number of closely linked investment projects to assess, then it is necessary to consider all alternative options of realization of a given project or a pool of projects at the time of selection. The analysis of a group of investment projects and selection of the best one among those as well as ranking by attractiveness is carried out through a complex use of criteria of efficiency of investments. Decision making on selection of investment projects cannot be realized just through the use of one criterium only. Indeed, a character, purpose and requirements of each investment project are differ-ent, while the actual process is accompanied with uncertainty in most cases. In this case, no single criterium in isolation cannot provide sufficient information, based on which a decision can be made on the attractiveness of the project. It is possible only after analysis of the entire complex of criteria of efficiency of investments. As such, the most important and challenging task is to select the most priority investment projects as well as rank the projects by priority accounting for a multiplicity of factors with impact in the cir-cumstances of multicriteriality. For this purpose, in article the methodological aspect of common characteristic features of main stages and criteria of appraisal of economic effectiveness of investment projects were researched and for the first time a comprehensive approach was proposed to appraise and select a group of priority investment projects meeting requirements of various criteria of effectiveness accounting for impact of different technical, technological, economic, financial, organizational, political and other factors in the circumstances of fuzziness of situation, which enables the development of a more effective pro-gram of investments. We propose a new algorithm of selection of optimal project on the basis of relationship of preference by degree of relative quality of projects considered and with application of methods based on fuzzy multiplicities, fuzzy relaionship of preference and multicriteriality of selection enabling a single ap-proach to solving the problem: identification of degree of impact of various factors and finding a li-mited number of the most influential factors; assessment of impact of various factors on ranking of criteria by their relative importance; selection of a group of a more priority projects. The proposed methodology may be applied successfully in decision making on appraisal and selection of factors, criteria and projects for various sectors of economy.