Evaluation of the potential of green and decent employment creation– case study of Tunisia

Degradation of the environment, including the pollution of water, soil and air, the irreversible loss of biodiversity, and depletion of natural resources are global threats to sustainable development. The threats are enhanced by the impact of climate change already being felt in many developing countries. These challenges have led to the postulate of making the way we produce, work and travel more compatible with the ecological limits and boundaries of our planet. On the social level, the challenges of large unemployment especially among young people, the questions of inclusion and participation of the population in a better, healthier and safer life seem equally unresolved in large parts of the world. Under the headline of Green Economy suggestions have been made in the course of the RIO+20 conference on the question how these challenges can be addressed by a harmonized approach. Currently, this is being translated into practice . To develop the respective policies, legislation and support mechanisms, a rigorous framework of evaluation has to be established. The analysis of the status of green and decent employment and of the potential for the creation of green and decent jobs in the future is a necessary first on the pathway to a green economy. The International Labor Organization (ILO) supports a series of studies in an attempt to develop a method for the measurement of green and decent employment. This paper deals with a study of this series which evaluates green employment in Tunisia. For Tunisia after the Revolution of 14 January 2011 the targets of a transition to a green economy overlap with some of the most pressing needs and challenges the country is facing with respect to economic, environmental and social changes. The approach consists of two parts: firstly, we construct an Input Output table where we can identify green sectors or shares of sectors which can be labeled “green”. A consistent method has been developed to construct such a matrix. From an original (N x N)- IO matrix, the result then is a (2N x 2N) matrix. The construction involves the definition of sectors which are totally green, of sectors which cannot be green and of sectors which have green and non-green parts. The overarching definitions are taken from the joint definitions of UNEP and ILO for green economic activities. Additionally, consistency between the original values of the IO table and the new sums of rows and columns has to be assured by a set of rules, which are defined in detail in the paper. In a next step, the cost structures for the green and the non-green parts are analyzed. For most sectors, the cost structure of the green part and the non-green part is the same. One notable exception is organic farming which, in comparison to conventional farming, exhibits shifts in the input structure from fertilizers (chemical industry) to machinery and labor. The latter shift can be read as a shift in value added shares, too. Secondly, we build a macro driven small IO model (cf. also Lehr et al. 2013, Renewable energy and energy efficiency in Tunisia – employment, qualification and economic effects) for Tunisia to forecast green employment development at the mid-term time horizon. Different scenarios then are defined together with stakeholders and fed into the model. The comparison of simulation runs allows for estimates of green employment under the different scenarios and employment differences under different strategies. Green jobs are currently found in Tunisia predominantly in the waste and water sector. In other sectors, the shares of green employment today are still rather low, with a larger share in services and administration than in the productive sector. This structure is typical for a developing country of Tunisia’s size and endowment. For future prospects, the opportunities lie in the production of consumption goods, i.e. also changing peoples’ preferences towards the environment, in improvements in the waste treatment and in a better integration of overall industrial production so that indirect employment effects can grow. The results compare well with other works by the ILO and UNEP on green employment in developing countries. The paper will give quantitative scenarios, results and policy recommendations.