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Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system

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  • Hu, Bo

Abstract

The long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Bo, 2018. "Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 89391, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:89391
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/89391/
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huan Liu, 2021. "Formal and Informal Care: Complementary or Substitutes in Care for Elderly People? Empirical Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    2. Yi Wang & Jiajia Li & Nan Zhang & Lulu Ding & Yuejing Feng & Xue Tang & Long Sun & Chengchao Zhou, 2022. "Urban–Rural Disparities in Informal Care Intensity of Adult Daughters and Daughters-in-Law for Elderly Parents from 1993–2015: Evidence from a National Study in China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 487-503, April.
    3. Xiaoran Huang & Pixin Gong & Marcus White, 2022. "Study on Spatial Distribution Equilibrium of Elderly Care Facilities in Downtown Shanghai," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term care projections; Disability transitions; Population ageing; China; Macrosimulation; Markov modelling; Bayesian approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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