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‘The frightful inadequacy of most of the statistics’: a critique of Collier and Hoeffler on causes of civil war

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  • Nathan, Laurie

Abstract

Over the past five years numerous cross-national statistical studies have been conducted on the causes of civil war. The most influential studies have been those by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler.Their work has been widely cited in international reports on security and stability. This paper offers a critique of their work, arguing that their research is filled with empirical, methodological and theoretical problems that lead to unreliable results and unjustified conclusions. Their most prominent finding - that dependence on natural resources heightens a country's risk of war because it affords rebels an opportunity for extortion - is not based on any evidence of rebel behaviour; it is an inference drawn from a correlation between the onset of civil war and the ratio of primary commodity exports to GDP. To borrow a felicitous phrase from Keynes, the Collier and Hoeffler model suffers from 'a frightful inadequacy of most of the statistics'.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan, Laurie, 2005. "‘The frightful inadequacy of most of the statistics’: a critique of Collier and Hoeffler on causes of civil war," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28337, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:28337
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/28337/
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasushi Suzuki & Mohammad Dulal Miah & Lin Htet Aung, 2017. "Challenges in the post-justice-seeking regime: the cases of Myanmar and Sri Lanka," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 537-558, October.
    2. Tim Kelly & David Souter, 2014. "The Role of Information and Communication Technologies in Postconflict Reconstruction," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16679.

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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