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Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit

Author

Listed:
  • Reader, Mary
  • Portes, Jonathan
  • Patrick, Ruth

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Reader, Mary & Portes, Jonathan & Patrick, Ruth, 2025. "Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127503, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127503
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; family size; social assistance; welfare reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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