Impact of conditional cash transfer programs on health outcomes in Argentina: a retrospective, observational analysis based on MICS 2019/2020

Background: Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are widely used to combat intergenerational poverty and to invest in human capital. Argentina introduced its own CCT program AUH (Asignación Universal por Hijo) in 2009. The aim of this research was to assess the relationship between the AUH program and key indicators: healthcare use, nutritional indicators (among children under five years), and high school enrollment. Methods: We utilized data from the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) conducted in Argentina between late 2019 and early 2020. Specifically, we employed different matching techniques to estimate the relationship between AUH and healthcare utilization and high school enrolment. Additionally, we assessed the program's importance in improving nutrition outcomes among children under five years. Findings: Our analysis reveals that the AUH program has not significantly increased healthcare utilization among affiliated children. When accounting for program heterogeneity, the impact of the program was found to be consistent across boys and girls, and across children of different ages, although we found evidence of increased healthcare utilization among adolescents. In addition, there was no statistically significant evidence for a link between program affiliation and reduction in stunting and wasting among children under five years. Furthermore, the program has led to increased high school enrolment among boys, consistent with established findings. Interpretation: The AUH program demonstrates a limited impact, particularly on health and nutrition outcome indicators. Efforts should be made to improve the program by focusing on cash transfer conditionality and amount, as well as strengthening healthcare infrastructure. Funding: None.