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Downscaling down under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models

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  • Kikstra, Jarmo S.
  • Li, Mengyu
  • Brockway, Paul E.
  • Hickel, Jason
  • Keysser, Lorenz
  • Malik, Arunima
  • Rogelj, Joeri
  • van Ruijven, Bas
  • Lenzen, Manfred

Abstract

IPCC reports, to date, have not featured ambitious mitigation scenarios with degrowth in high-income regions. Here, using MESSAGEix-Australia, we create 51 emissions scenarios for Australia with near-term GDP growth going from +3%/year to rapid reductions (−5%/year) to explore to what extent a traditional integrated assessment model (IAM) can represent degrowth from an economic starting point, not just energy demand reduction. We find that stagnating GDP per capita reduces the mid-century need for upscaling solar and wind energy by about 40% compared to the SSP2 growth baseline, and limits future material needs for renewables. Still, solar and wind energy in 2030 is more than quadruple that of 2020. Faster reductions in energy demand may entail higher socio-cultural feasibility concerns, depending on the policies involved. Strong reductions in inequality reduce the risk of lowered access to decent living services. We discuss research needs and possible IAM extensions to improve post-growth and degrowth scenario modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Kikstra, Jarmo S. & Li, Mengyu & Brockway, Paul E. & Hickel, Jason & Keysser, Lorenz & Malik, Arunima & Rogelj, Joeri & van Ruijven, Bas & Lenzen, Manfred, 2024. "Downscaling down under: towards degrowth in integrated assessment models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122721, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:122721
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristian S. Nielsen & Kimberly A. Nicholas & Felix Creutzig & Thomas Dietz & Paul C. Stern, 2021. "The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1011-1016, November.
    2. Stefan Pauliuk & Anders Arvesen & Konstantin Stadler & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2017. "Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 13-20, January.
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