Effect of the timber legality requirement system on lumber trade: focusing on EUTR and Lacey Act

This study provides novel insights into the policy effects of timber legality verification methods, specifically Due-diligence (under the European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR)) and Due-care (under the Lacey Act), on coniferous and non-coniferous lumber trade, highlighting their significance in the context of global lumber trade. Timber legality verification plays a pivotal role in the global timber trade. We comprehensively assess the impact of verification methods on coniferous and non-coniferous lumber trade, utilizing two decades of trade data (1997–2017) across approximately 160 countries. We employ the difference-in-differences method based on the gravity model of international trade, utilizing robust export–import data and demographic profiles. Our findings demonstrate that the effect of EUTR on coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.32% and −0.05%, and that on non-coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.44% and −0.05%, whereas the effect of the Lacey Act on coniferous lumber imports ranged between −0.93% and −0.09%. Non-coniferous lumber imports remained unaffected. The Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) led to decreased exports to the EU and US. Our findings hold two key implications. First, Due-diligence exhibits more consistent policy effects than Due-care. Second, supporting VPA-participating countries is crucial for facilitating timber trade. These insights inform timber trade policies and sustainable practices.