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Institutional trade persistence and long-term equity returns

Author

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  • Dasgupta, Amil
  • Prat, Andrea
  • Verardo, Michela

Abstract

Recent studies show that single-quarter institutional herding positively predicts short-term returns. Motivated by the theoretical herding literature, which emphasizes endogenous persistence in decisions over time, we estimate the effect of multi-quarter institutional buying and selling on stock returns. Using both regression and portfolio tests, we find that persistent institutional trading negatively predicts long-term returns: persistently sold stocks outperform persistently bought stocks at long horizons. The negative association between returns and institutional trade persistence is not subsumed by past returns or other stock characteristics, is concentrated among smaller stocks, and is stronger for stocks with higher institutional ownership.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea & Verardo, Michela, 2010. "Institutional trade persistence and long-term equity returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119080, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:119080
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/119080/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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