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The slope of the term structure and recessions:: evidence from the UK, 1822 – 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Mills, Terence C.
  • Capie, Forrest
  • Goodhart, C. A. E.

Abstract

It is well known that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information for forecasting the likelihood of a recession in the US. This column examines whether the same is true for the UK. Focusing on three periods – the pre-WWI era, the inter-war years, and the post-WWII period – it finds strong support for the inverted yield curve being a predictor of UK recessions for both the pre-WWI and post-WWII periods, but the evidence is less conclusive for the inter-war years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mills, Terence C. & Capie, Forrest & Goodhart, C. A. E., 2019. "The slope of the term structure and recessions:: evidence from the UK, 1822 – 2016," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100964, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:100964
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/100964/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "The Slope of the Term Structure and Recessions: The Pre-Fed Evidence, 1857-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 13013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian C. Brill & Dieter Nautz & Lea Sieckmann, 2021. "Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 247-278, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic history; monetary policy; yield curve; recessions; UK; term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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