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Looking for Multiple Equilibria in Russian Urban System

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  • Mikhailova Tatiana

Abstract

This paper studies the e®ect of forced labor relocation in GULAG, and the losses during the WWII on the long-term dynamics of city growth in the USSR. The main goal is to test whether the impact of Stalinist policies and the WWII on economic geography of the USSR persists in long run, and whether, in response to these policies, the long-term dynamics of the Soviet city growth shows evidence of multiple equilibria. I ?nd that WWII does not have a statistically signi?cant long-term e®ect on city growth, controlling for other factors, while GULAG system does. The growth of an average city in 1960s exhibits partial mean-reversion after the shocks of 1930s-1950s. The dynamics is consistent with multiple equilibria hypothesis: cities that received a lot of investment (as measured by the GULAG population) in the 1930s-1950s, have a higher chance not to revert to the previous trajectory, but to continue growing, while neglected cities are more likely to decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhailova Tatiana, 2010. "Looking for Multiple Equilibria in Russian Urban System," EERC Working Paper Series 10/08e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:10/08e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2011. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 814-831, August.
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    5. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2007. "Looking for multiple equilibria when geography matters: German city growth and the WWII shock," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 152-169, January.
    6. Ira N. Gang & Robert C. Stuart, 1999. "Mobility where mobility is illegal: Internal migration and city growth in the Soviet Union," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 117-134.
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    Cited by:

    1. Davidson Natalia Borisovna & Mariev Oleg Svyatoslavovitch, 2015. "The impact of spatial concentration on enterprise performance," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», issue 4, pages 95-105.
    2. Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2012. "Cities in Transition," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(3), pages 661-688, September.
    3. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2016. "Spatial Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Income Differentials Across Russian Cities," HSE Working papers WP BRP 149/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Andrey Pushkarev & Oleg Mariev & Natalia Davidson, 2020. "The effect of spatial concentration on the business performance in various types of Russian cities," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 10913084, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Vera Ivanova, 2015. "The well-being of Russian cities: does location matter?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p956, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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