The imperative for integrative low emissions development:evaluating integrative fit of low emissions development strategies across eight countries

The Paris Agreement encourages nations to develop long term low emissions strategies to articulate their pathways to achieve net zero by 2050. While mitigating global temperature increase and shifting to low emissions development are integrated challenges (defined by complex relationships between dynamic factors that need to be considered together to understand the whole), integrative approaches are not consistently used and not well understood in the governance of social-ecological systems. This study presents a Framework for Integrative Strategy that highlights key dimensions required for national strategies to have integrative fit with shifting nations to low emissions development. When applied to the national strategies of eight high greenhouse gas emitting countries, only Germany, Japan and South Africa scored a ‘fit’ score well above their ‘gap’. Collectively, there are significant gaps in six out of seven dimensions, where four have gaps greater than fit. This significant integrative gap suggests low likelihood of achieving a sustainable low emissions future.