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The Trade-Inflation Nexus: The Role of Production Networks

Author

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  • Thuy Hang Duong
  • Weifeng Larry Liu

Abstract

From the 1990s until COVID-19, the world experienced a sustained period of low and stable inflation, alongside a marked increase in trade integration among countries. This paper examines the impacts of international trade on inflation through production networks. We first construct a theoretical model of an open economy to illustrate how input-output networks propagate the price impacts of trade shocks. Using Australia as a case study, we find that the network impacts of trade shocks on inflation are as significant as their direct impacts, and primarily propagate upstream, based on data of 47 manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2023. Australia’s low inflation before COVID benefited from increasing exposure to China’s low-cost exports, while inflation surged during COVID due to global supply chain disruptions, among other factors. This paper underscores the importance of economic globalization for inflation through production networks, and offers several implications for monetary and trade policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Thuy Hang Duong & Weifeng Larry Liu, 2025. "The Trade-Inflation Nexus: The Role of Production Networks," CAMA Working Papers 2025-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-23
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-04/23_2025_Duong_Liu_0.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; international trade; production networks; propagation of shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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