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Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area

Author

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  • Michal Marencak
  • Giang Nghiem

Abstract

Using granular household-level spending data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, we document new stylized facts on the heterogeneity of personally realized inflation across different inflation regimes in the euro area. During the period of low inflation (April 2020 – April 2021) and the period of sticky inflation (January 2024 – October 2024), homeowners, high-income households, and older individuals experienced lower inflation. However, during the inflation surge (July 2021 – October 2023), this pattern reversed as rising energy and food prices disproportionately affected these groups, outweighing their lower spending shares in these categories. Personally experienced inflation accounts for a significant share of the variation in inflation perceptions, inflation expectations, and broader macroeconomic expectations, including personal income expectations. Moreover, these relationships differ notably across inflation regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Marencak & Giang Nghiem, 2025. "Personal Inflation Rates in the Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2025-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-17
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-04/17_2025_Marencak_Nghiem.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    personal inflation rate; expectations; consumer expectations survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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