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How Do Macroaggregates and Income Distribution Interact Dynamically? A Novel Structural Mixed Autoregression with Aggregate and Functional Variables

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  • Yoosoon Chang
  • Soyoung Kim
  • Joon Y. Park

Abstract

This paper investigates the interactions between macroeconomic aggregates and income distribution by developing a structural VAR model with functional variables. With this novel empirical approach, we are able to identify and analyze the effects of various shocks to the income distribution on macro aggregates, as well as the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the income distribution. Our main findings are as follows: First, contractionary monetary pol-icy shocks reduce income inequality when focusing solely on the redistributive effects, without considering the negative impact on aggregate income levels. This improvement is achieved by reducing the number of low and high-income families while increasing the proportion of middle-income families. However, when the aggregate income shift is also taken into account, contractionary monetary policy shocks worsen income inequality. Second, shocks to the income distribution have a substantial effect on output fluctuations. For example, income distribution shocks identified to maximize future output levels have a significant and persistent positive effect on output, contributing up to 30% at long horizons and over 50% for the lowest income percentiles. However, alternative income distribution shocks identified to minimize the future Gini index do not have any significant negative effects on output. This finding, combined with the positive effect of output-maximizing income distribution shocks on equality, suggests that properly designed redistributive policies are not subject to the often-claimed trade-off between growth and equality. Moreover, variations in income distribution are primarily explained by shocks to the income distribution itself, rather than by aggregate shocks, including monetary shocks. This highlights the need for redistributive policies to substantially alter the income distribution and reduce inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoosoon Chang & Soyoung Kim & Joon Y. Park, 2025. "How Do Macroaggregates and Income Distribution Interact Dynamically? A Novel Structural Mixed Autoregression with Aggregate and Functional Variables," CAMA Working Papers 2025-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-07
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; income distribution; re-distributive effects; structural vector autoregression; functional time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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