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Understanding consumer inflation expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Gunda Alexandra Detmers
  • Sui-Jade Ho
  • Özer Karagedikl

Abstract

We study how individuals’ formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we find that policies aimed to contain the pandemic lead to an increase in individuals’ inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty. We also find some heterogeneity in the impact across different demographic groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunda Alexandra Detmers & Sui-Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikl, 2022. "Understanding consumer inflation expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2022-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2022-11
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2022-02/11_2022_detmers_ho_karagedikli.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. CSORBA Luiela Magdalena & JURAVLE Damaris Judita, 2022. "Study Regarding The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Inflation In Romania In The 2019 - 2020 Period," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 74(1), pages 51-64, August.
    2. Balcaen, Pieter & Buts, Caroline & Bois, Cind Du & Tkacheva, Olesya, 2023. "The effect of disinformation about COVID-19 on consumer confidence: Insights from a survey experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2022. "Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 373-374, September.
    4. Conces Binder, Carola & Campbell, Jeffrey & Ryngaert, Jane, 2022. "Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics," MPRA Paper 117628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences (Katharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler)," Working Papers 247, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Mustafa Özer & Serap Kamisli & Fatih Temizel & Melik Kamisli, 2022. "Are COVID-19-Related Economic Supports One of the Drivers of Surge in Bitcoin Market? Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear Causality Tests," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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