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Uncertainty in a disaggregate model: A data rich approach using Google search queries

Author

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  • Kalvinder Shields
  • Trung Duc Tran

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of uncertainty shocks in a disaggregate model featuring state-level unemployment and uncertainty, which is measured using Google search data. We show that the disaggregate model captures important spillover effects which a model using aggregate data would overlook resulting in significantly different peak responses and time dynamic effects. We find the effect of uncertainty shocks on state-level unemployment is recessionary and heterogeneous. The importance of national factors in propagating the effect of uncertainty is also heterogeneous across states, and overall less relevant than state-level factors. These heterogeneous effects are found to be related to state-specific industry compositions and the fiscal position.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalvinder Shields & Trung Duc Tran, 2019. "Uncertainty in a disaggregate model: A data rich approach using Google search queries," CAMA Working Papers 2019-83, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-83
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-11/83_2019_shields_tran_0.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
    2. Michele Costola & Michael Donadelli & Luca Gerotto & Ivan Gufler, 2022. "Global risks, the macroeconomy, and asset prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2357-2388, November.
    3. Donadelli, Michael & Gufler, Ivan & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2020. "The macro and asset pricing implications of rising Italian uncertainty: Evidence from a novel news-based macroeconomic policy uncertainty index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Wei‐Fong Pan & James Reade & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Measuring US regional economic uncertainty," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1149-1178, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Google Trends uncertainty; uncertainty shocks; regional effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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