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A structural investigation of the Chinese economy with a hybrid monetary policy rule

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  • Ran Li
  • Jiao Wang

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to understand how monetary policy is conducted in China and what the main sources of fluctuations in China’s business cycle are. To this end, we extend a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions and investment-specific technology shocks. We incorporate a hybrid form of monetary policy rule and employ a Bayesian estimation strategy using Chinese data. We find that the People’s Bank of China conducts monetary policy by adjusting the policy rate in response to inflation, output growth as well as real money growth. We also find that neutral technology shocks are the main drivers of the fluctuations in output and consumption while the investment-specific technology shock is the primary source of the variation in investment. This paper offers a new way of examining the rule of China’s monetary policy and indicates a structural break of the neutral technology development that may have caused the slowing down of GDP growth since 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Ran Li & Jiao Wang, 2015. "A structural investigation of the Chinese economy with a hybrid monetary policy rule," CAMA Working Papers 2015-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-10
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2015-04/10_2015_li_wang_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 101-121, January.
    2. Aaron Mehrotra & Riikka Nuutilainen & Jenni Pääkkönen, 2013. "Changing Economic Structures and Impacts of Shocks: Evidence from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for C hina," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 92-107, February.
    3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    4. Liu, Li-gang & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "A New Keynesian model for analysing monetary policy in Mainland China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 540-551, December.
    5. Zhang, Wenlang, 2009. "China's monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-484, September.
    6. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Ding & Yixiao Zhou, 2021. "Did the Labor Contract Law Affect the Capital Deepening and Efficiency of Chinese Private Firms?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(5), pages 105-126, September.
    2. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; business fluctuation; Bayesian estimation; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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