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Take-off, Persistence and Sustainability: The Demographic Factor in Chinese Growth

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  • Fang Cai and Yang Lu

Abstract

With the reduction of the working-age population and the increase of the population dependency ratio as the main indicators of the diminishing demographic dividend, China's potential growth rate is decreasing. Our results suggest that the demographic dividend contributed to nearly one fourth of the economic growth in China in the past three decades, while total factor productive growth explains another third and capital accumulation explaining the remaining growth (nearly half). China's potential growth rate will continue to slow—it was nearly 10 per cent during 1980–2010 but 6.65 per cent on average during 2016–2020—because of the diminishing demographic dividend, but reform measures are conductive to clearing the institutional barriers to the supply of factors and productivity, buffering the potential growth rate. The aggregate reform dividend could reach to 1–2 per cent on average during 2016–2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Cai and Yang Lu, 2016. "Take-off, Persistence and Sustainability: The Demographic Factor in Chinese Growth," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 201618, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:appswp:201618
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    File URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/app5.139/epdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Qianxiao & Shah, Syed Ale Raza & Yang, Ling, 2022. "An Appreciated Response of Disaggregated Energies Consumption towards the Sustainable Growth: A debate on G-10 Economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    2. Wenyi Qiao & Weihua Guan & Xianjin Huang, 2021. "Assessing the Potential Impact of Land Use on Carbon Storage Driven by Economic Growth: A Case Study in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Qiu, Tongwei & Shi, Xinjie & He, Qinying & Luo, Biliang, 2021. "The paradox of developing agricultural mechanization services in China: Supporting or kicking out smallholder farmers?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Xie, Yu & Wu, Desheng & Li, Xiaoyan & Tian, Suhua, 2023. "How does environmental regulation affect productivity? The role of corporate compliance strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Qiu, Tongwei & Boris Choy, S.T. & Li, Shangpu & He, Qinying & Luo, Biliang, 2020. "Does land renting-in reduce grain production? Evidence from rural China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Min Qin & Wei Zhu & Shiyue Zhao & Yu Zhao, 2022. "Is Artificial Intelligence Better than Manpower? The Effects of Different Types of Online Customer Services on Customer Purchase Intentions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Tongwei, Qiu & Luo, Biliang & Boris Choy, S.T. & Li, Yifei & He, Qinying, 2020. "Do land renting-in and its marketization increase labor input in agriculture? Evidence from rural China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population; demography; China; intergenerational; economy policy;
    All these keywords.

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