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Is Climate Change Altering Tourism Flows? Insights from Structural Gravity Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Llorca

    (Departamento de Economía Aplicada II (Estructura Económica), Facultad de Economía, Avda. de los Naranjos, s/n, 46022 Valencia)

  • Alejandra Martínez – Martínez

    (University of Valencia and INTECO)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of key climate factors and extreme meteorological events on international tourism flows relative to domestic tourism flows. To achieve this, we estimate a structural gravity equation on a sample of 50 countries over the period 2008–2021. On average, temperatures do not exhibit a significant effect on the aforementioned relationship. However, this finding is critically influenced by the heterogeneity observed across countries, particularly the negative effects estimated for Canada and the United States. The number of hot days and heavy precipitations reduces the relative volume of international tourism, although this effect also varies depending on the country. Notably, the United States once again plays a pivotal role in driving the estimated average negative impact of extreme events on international tourism flows. At the global level, storms, landslides, wildfires, extreme temperatures and epidemics adversely affect international tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Llorca & Alejandra Martínez – Martínez, 2025. "Is Climate Change Altering Tourism Flows? Insights from Structural Gravity Estimation," Working Papers 2503, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:2503
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Domestic tourism; International Tourism; Gravity Equation; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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