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Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

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  • Molana, Hassan
  • Osei-Assibey, Kwame

Abstract

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Molana, Hassan & Osei-Assibey, Kwame, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-94, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:225
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    Cited by:

    1. Williams Ohemeng & Elvis Kwame Agyapong & Kenneth Ofori-Boateng, 2021. "Exchange rate and inflation dynamics: does the month or quarter of the year matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-24, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; depreciation; volatility; causality; GARCH; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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