United States economic outlook: first half of 2024

The United States economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 —more than double the 1.4% GDP growth recorded in the first quarter and well above the economy’s long-term growth potential—, driven primarily by consumer spending. The resilience of consumer spending has been supported by receding inflation and a robust labour market. Inflation slowed to 2.5% in August 2024, the lowest level in more than three years. Employment has increased for 44 consecutive months, but the labour market is softening. The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 0.50% in September, launching the first easing monetary cycle since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and signalling more reductions to follow, alleviating pressure on financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The United States economic outlook reports are published three times a year and follow the main macroeconomic developments of the United States economy and how they could affect financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean. This issue contains a special chapter with a brief description of the positions of the United States presidential candidates on key economic policy issues and what they could mean for Latin America and the Caribbean.