Building post-pandemic economic resilience by diversifying tourism: the case of Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia

Through a combination of primary and secondary research, this study sheds light on the effects of the pandemic on the tourism industries of the small island states of Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, and Saint Kitts and Nevis. Additionally, the study seeks to identify potential areas for niche market development to diversify the tourism sector in these destinations. Using a counterfactual analysis, visitor expenditure losses were estimated at over $7 billion over the period 2020 to 2022, among the three countries under review. The easing of restrictions on movement in 2021 and 2022 however allowed for a steady return of tourism, with the United States market performing particularly well. To this end, using criteria adopted from Dwyer and Kim’s (2003) integrative model for destination competitiveness and insight from stakeholder consultations, the study identified optimum areas for niche market development. These included integrative products such as cultural heritage tourism, wellness tourism, gastronomic and eco-tourism, and parallel products including sports tourism and education tourism. These areas present opportunities to enrich the visitor experience, diversify the tourism product, create value-added linkages with other sectors and build resilience in the tourism industry. In addition to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the study identified other factors impacting stakeholders in the tourism industry, many of which are longstanding issues. These include a mismatch between available skills and skills needed to fill current and future roles in the tourism industry; the scarcity of data for strategic planning, monitoring and evaluation; and sustainability. Demographic groups including women in the tourism industry also face peculiar challenges. To address these challenges, the study recommends strengthening strategic planning, improving data collection and analysis, investing in human resources, strengthening stakeholder participation in tourism planning, and improving the business environment among other recommendations.