IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecr/col022/4086.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumer confidence and economic growth: case studies of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

Author

Listed:
  • Dookie, Michele
  • Lugay, Beverly
  • Sergeant, Kelvin A.

Abstract

This study examined the causal link between consumer confidence and GDP in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago in the context of the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. The interest rate and exchange rate were also included in the model as control variables. In the case of Jamaica, remittances were included due to its importance in the economy. The study argued that consumer confidence indices can be useful in economic forecasting, policymaking and business planning in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. This usefulness is, however, built on the assumption that the index leads (or causes) aggregate economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dookie, Michele & Lugay, Beverly & Sergeant, Kelvin A., 2011. "Consumer confidence and economic growth: case studies of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago," Documentos de Proyectos 4086, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col022:4086
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/4086
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khayelihle Madlopha, 2019. "The Nexus between Consumer Confidence and Economic Growth in South Africa: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(2), pages 15-22.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dookie, Michele & Lugay, Beverly & Sergeant, Kelvin A., 2011. "Consumer confidence and economic growth: case studies of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 4086, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Nielsen, Morten Orregaard & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2007. "Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 574-596, December.
    3. Jesus Gonzalo & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2000. "On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 821-827.
    4. Yanhua Chen & Rosario N Mantegna & Athanasios A Pantelous & Konstantin M Zuev, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-40, March.
    5. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. Zaman, Khalid & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Ahmad, Mehboob & Rustam, Rabiah, 2012. "The relationship between agricultural technology and energy demand in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 268-279.
    7. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.
    8. Zhang, Rongmao & Chan, Ngai Hang, 2018. "Portmanteau-type tests for unit-root and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 307-324.
    9. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    10. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    12. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    13. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    14. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
    15. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2002. "Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 223-249, December.
    16. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    17. Mumtaz, Rehma & Zaman, Khalid & Sajjad, Faiza & Lodhi, Muhammad Saeed & Irfan, Muhammad & Khan, Imran & Naseem, Imran, 2014. "Modeling the causal relationship between energy and growth factors: Journey towards sustainable development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 353-365.
    18. Carlos Góes & Herman Kamil & Phil De Imus & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Jeremy Zook, 2017. "Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2017/050, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Chu, Amanda M.Y. & Lv, Zhihui & Wagner, Niklas F. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear growth determinants: The case of Mongolia and its connection to China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    20. Anna Bykhovskaya & Vadim Gorin, 2020. "Cointegration in large VARs," Papers 2006.14179, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col022:4086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.