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Institutional Investors' Subjective Risk Premia: Time Variation and Disagreement

Author

Listed:
  • Couts, Spencer J.

    (U of Southern California)

  • Goncalves, Andrei S.

    (Ohio State U)

  • Liu, Yicheng

    (Ohio State U)

  • Loudis, Johnathan

    (U of Notre Dame)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the role of subjective risk premia in explaining subjective expected return time variation and disagreement using the long-term Capital Market Assumptions of major asset managers and investment consultants from 1987 to 2022. We find that market risk premia explain most of the expected return time variation, with the rest explained by alphas. The risk premia effect is almost entirely driven by time variation in risk quantities as opposed to risk price. Nevertheless, risk price explains about half of the transitory effect of risk premia on expected returns. Market risk premia also explain most of the expected return disagreement, but in this case alphas have a quantitatively significant effect, and risk price and risk quantities are roughly equally responsible for the risk premia effect. Our results provide benchmark moments that asset pricing models should match to be consistent with institutional investors' beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Couts, Spencer J. & Goncalves, Andrei S. & Liu, Yicheng & Loudis, Johnathan, 2024. "Institutional Investors' Subjective Risk Premia: Time Variation and Disagreement," Working Paper Series 2024-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2024-17
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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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