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The Dollar Ahead of FOMC Target Rate Changes

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  • Karnaukh, Nina

    (OH State U)

Abstract

I find that the U.S. dollar appreciates over the two-day period before contractionary monetary policy decisions at scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and depreciates over the two-day period before expansionary monetary policy decisions. The federal funds futures rate forecasts these dollar movements with a 22% R^{2}. A high federal funds futures spread three days in advance of an FOMC meeting not only predicts the target rate rise, but also predicts a rise in the dollar over the subsequent two-day period. A simple trading strategy, which exploits this predictability, exhibits a 0.93 Sharpe ratio. My findings imply that information about monetary policy changes is reflected first in the fixed income markets, and only later becomes reflected in currency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Karnaukh, Nina, 2018. "The Dollar Ahead of FOMC Target Rate Changes," Working Paper Series 2018-14, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2018-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo.
    2. Thomas Mcinish & Christopher J. Neely & Jade Planchon, 2024. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Shorts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 805-835, June.
    3. Ai, Hengjie & Han, Leyla Jianyu & Pan, Xuhui Nick & Xu, Lai, 2022. "The cross section of the monetary policy announcement premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 247-276.
    4. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    5. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2020. "Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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