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An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

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  • Barrell, Ray

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

  • Dawn Holland
  • Nigel Pain

Abstract

This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ray Barrell & Nigel Pain, 1997. "The Growth of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 160(1), pages 63-75, April.
    2. Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp146, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
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    5. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
    6. Schmidt, Klaus M., 1996. "Incomplete contracts and privatization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 569-579, April.
    7. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-1786, November.
    8. Schmidt, Klaus M, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Privatization: An Incomplete Contracts Approach," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, April.
    9. Knack, Steve, 1996. "Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-228, June.
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    12. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 477-504, July.
    13. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025.
    14. Nigel Pain & Dawn Holland, 1998. "The Diffusion Of Innovations In Central And Eastern Europe: A Study Of The Determinants And Impact O," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 137, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Kureková, Lucia Mýtna & Biavaschi, Costanza, 2013. "Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU – Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching," IZA Research Reports 56, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Vladimir Klyuev & Stephen Snudden, 2011. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 306-326, August.
    3. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Pavel Soukup, 2012. "Fiscal Discretion in the Czech Republic in 2001-2011: Has It Been Stabilizing?," Research and Policy Notes 2012/01, Czech National Bank.
    4. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 291-315.
    5. Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2012. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 226-251, July.
    6. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    7. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 204, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
    9. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
    10. Marga Peeters, 2011. "Modelling unemployment in the presence of excess labour supply," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 58-92.
    11. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Demographic pressure, excess labour supply and public-private sector employment in Egypt - Modelling labour supply to analyse the response of unemployment, public finances and welfare," MPRA Paper 31101, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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