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Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter

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  • Ferrari, Alessandro
  • Landi, Valerio Nispi

Abstract

We analyse a gradual increase in the tax on emissions in a simple two-period New Keynesian model with an AS-AD representation. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: we show that the second effect is larger. However, if households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect of the transition may be inflationary in the first period. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show the transition may initially be inflationary. JEL Classification: D84, E31, Q58

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrari, Alessandro & Landi, Valerio Nispi, 2022. "Will the green transition be inflationary? Expectations matter," Working Paper Series 2726, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222726
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
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    9. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2015. "New-Keynesian economics: An AS–AD view," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 503-524.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Colciago, Andrea & Priftis, Romanos & Chafwehé, Boris, 2024. "Reallocation, productivity, and monetary policy in an energy crisis," Working Paper Series 2961, European Central Bank.
    2. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: An assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2024. "Carbon taxes around the world: cooperation, strategic interactions, and spillovers," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1445, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Bartocci, Anna & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Frankovic, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "The role of emission disclosure for the low-carbon transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Matsumura, Kohei & Naka, Tomomi & Sudo, Nao, 2024. "Analysis of the transmission of carbon taxes using a multi-sector DSGE," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    8. Le, Anh H., 2023. "Climate change and carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," IMFS Working Paper Series 191, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    9. Dück, Alexander & Le, Anh H., 2023. "Transition risk uncertainty and robust optimal monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 187, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    11. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2024. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate prices; AS AD; climate policy; expectations; pollution tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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