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Financial drivers of the euro area business cycle: a DSGE-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hirschbühl, Dominik
  • Krustev, Georgi
  • Stoevsky, Grigor

Abstract

We estimate a modified version of the “Financial Business Cycles” model originally developed by Iacoviello (2015) in order to investigate the role played by financial factors in driving the business cycle in the euro area. In the model, financial shocks such as borrower defaults, collateral shocks and credit supply effects amplify economic downturns by reducing the flow of credit from banks to the real sector. In this novel application to the euro area, we introduce capital reallocation inefficiency, an innovation to the original set-up which allows for more realistic effects of entrepreneur defaults on economic activity. Our results suggest that financial factors, as captured by this model, played a smaller role in the euro area throughout the double-dip recession than in the United States during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. In a scenario on second-round effects implied by potential NFC loan losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we find large financial amplification risks to real economic activity. JEL Classification: E32, E44, E47

Suggested Citation

  • Hirschbühl, Dominik & Krustev, Georgi & Stoevsky, Grigor, 2020. "Financial drivers of the euro area business cycle: a DSGE-based approach," Working Paper Series 2475, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202475
    Note: 2215397
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2475~097597504f.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Francisco Covas & John C. Driscoll & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Michael Kiley & Albert Queralto & Jae Sim, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 137-204, September.
    8. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Saiz, Lorena & Stoevsky, Grigor & Tóth, Máté & Warmedinger, Thomas & Grigoraș, Veaceslav, 2024. "The euro area business cycle and its drivers," Occasional Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    2. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; DSGE; financial frictions; housing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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