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Investment funds under stress

Author

Listed:
  • Maqui, Eduardo
  • Sydow, Matthias
  • Gourdel, Régis

Abstract

This paper presents a model for stress testing investment funds, based on a broad worldwide sample of primary open-end equity and bond funds. First, we employ a Bayesian technique to project the impact of macro-financial scenarios on country-level portfolio flows worldwide that are constructed from fund-level asset holdings. Second, from these projected country-level flows, we model the scenarios’ repercussions on individual funds along a three year horizon. Importantly, we further decompose portfolio flows, disentangling the specific contributions of transactions, valuation and foreign exchange effects. Overall, our results indicate that the impact of a global adverse macro-financial scenario leads to a median depletion in assets under management (AUM) of 24% and 5%, for euro area-domiciled equity and bond funds respectively, largely driven by valuation effects. Scenario and results both present similarities to the global financial crisis. We use historical information on fund liquidations to estimate a threshold for a drop in AUM that signals a high likelihood of a forthcoming liquidation. Based on this, we estimate that 5.8% and 0.5% of euro area-domiciled equity and bond funds respectively could go into liquidation. Such empirical thresholds can be useful for the implementation of prudential policy tools, such as redemption gates. JEL Classification: F21, G15, G17, G23, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Maqui, Eduardo & Sydow, Matthias & Gourdel, Régis, 2019. "Investment funds under stress," Working Paper Series 2323, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192323
    Note: 2105744
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2323~e3e995fe5c.en.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sydow, Matthias & Schilte, Aurore & Covi, Giovanni & Deipenbrock, Marija & Del Vecchio, Leonardo & Fiedor, Pawel & Fukker, Gábor & Gehrend, Max & Gourdel, Régis & Grassi, Alberto & Hilberg, Björn & Ka, 2024. "Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2021. "From taper tantrum to Covid-19: Portfolio flows to emerging markets in periods of stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2023. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," Working Paper Series 2757, European Central Bank.
    6. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian model averaging; international capital flows; investment funds; portfolio valuation; prudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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