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An automatic leading indicator, variable reduction and variable selection methods using small and large datasets: Forecasting the industrial production growth for euro area economies

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  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo
  • Kapetanios, George
  • Papailias, Fotis
  • Weale, Martin R.

Abstract

This paper assesses the forecasting performance of various variable reduction and variable selection methods. A small and a large set of wisely chosen variables are used in forecasting the industrial production growth for four Euro Area economies. The results indicate that the Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) model performs well compared to other variable reduction methods in small datasets. However, Partial Least Squares and variable selection using heuristic optimisations of information criteria along with the ALI could be used in model averaging methodologies. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C52

Suggested Citation

  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Kapetanios, George & Papailias, Fotis & Weale, Martin R., 2015. "An automatic leading indicator, variable reduction and variable selection methods using small and large datasets: Forecasting the industrial production growth for euro area economies," Working Paper Series 1773, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.
    2. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
    3. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    4. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Camacho, Máximo & Alvarez, Rocio, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8867, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2021. "UK Economic Conditions during the Pandemic: Assessing the Economy using ONS Faster Indicators," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-10, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    2. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "Composite global indicators from survey data: the Global Economic Barometers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 917-945, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian shrinkage regression; dynamic factor model; euro area; forecasting; Kalman filter; partial least squares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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