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House price responsiveness of housing investments across major European economies

Author

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  • Gattini, Luca
  • Ganoulis, Ioannis

Abstract

In comparison with the large literature on house prices, housing investments have been studied far less. This paper investigates the behaviour of private residential investments for the six largest European economies, namely: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. It employs a common modelling structure based on an error correction approach and country specific models. First, co-integration among the parsimoniously specified set of fundamental variables is detected in all countries. Second, cross-country differences are found in the responsiveness of private residential investments to real prices and to other relevant factors. Germany has the strongest response of private residential investments to house price changes whereas Italy shows the lowest responses. In Spain investments seem to be primarily related to their lagged component and short-term changes in house prices, and show a poor relationship with deviations from long-term fundamentals. In some countries, the lagged component of residential investments seems to point to a high persistency effect. JEL Classification: C2, R30, E22

Suggested Citation

  • Gattini, Luca & Ganoulis, Ioannis, 2012. "House price responsiveness of housing investments across major European economies," Working Paper Series 1461, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121461
    Note: 92865
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1461.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, 2022. "Household debt and macroeconomic stability: An empirical stock‐flow consistent model for the Danish economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 144-197, February.
    2. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Gabe J. de Bondt & Arne Gieseck, 2023. "Forecasting housing investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 543-565, April.
    3. Kajuth, Florian, 2021. "Land leverage and the housing market: Evidence from Germany1," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility? Evidence from U.S. Regions," IMF Working Papers 2016/216, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Serena Fatica & Doris Prammer, 2018. "Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 299-342, June.
    6. Arestis, Philip & Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana Rosa, 2016. "Revisiting the accelerator principle in a world of uncertainty: Some empirical evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-42.
    7. Lojschova, Adriana & Wagner, Karin & Schmidt, Alexander & Akantziliotou, Calliope & Dujardin, Marine & Kennedy, Gerard & Pontuch, Peter, 2015. "Report on residential real estate and financial stability in the EU, Section 1. on Structural features of residential real estate markets," MPRA Paper 79723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Cross Country Residential Investment Rates and the Implications for the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2017. "Second homes in Italy: every household’s dream or (un)profitable investments?," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 168-185, February.
    10. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González-Martínez, 2015. "Is Job Insecurity a Driver of the Housing Cycle? Some Evidence in the Spanish Case," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González-Martínez, 2015. "Residential Construction Activity in OECD Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(4), pages 451-474, July.
    12. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2012. "Second Homes: Households' Life Dream or (Wrong) Investment?," CEIS Research Paper 351, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Aug 2012.
    13. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2012. "Second Homes: Households' Life Dream or (Wrong) Investment?," CEIS Research Paper 351, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 04 Aug 2012.
    14. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, "undated". "An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_942, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Kajuth, Florian, 2020. "The German housing market cycle: Answers to FAQs," Discussion Papers 20/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    co-integration; elasticity; error-correction mechanism; Housing investments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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