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Assessing portfolio credit risk changes in a sample of EU large and complex banking groups in reaction to macroeconomic shocks

Author

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  • Castrén, Olli
  • Fitzpatrick, Trevor
  • Sydow, Matthias

Abstract

In terms of regulatory and economic capital, credit risk is the most significant risk faced by banks. We implement a credit risk model - based on publicly available information - with the aim of developing a tool to monitor credit risk in a sample of large and complex banking groups (LCBGs) in the EU. The results indicate varying credit risk profiles across these LCBGs and over time. Furthermore, the results show that large negative shocks to real GDP have the largest impact on the credit risk profiles of banks in the sample. Notwithstanding some caveats, the results demonstrate the potential value of this approach for monitoring financial stability. JEL Classification: C02, C19, C52, C61, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Castrén, Olli & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Sydow, Matthias, 2009. "Assessing portfolio credit risk changes in a sample of EU large and complex banking groups in reaction to macroeconomic shocks," Working Paper Series 1002, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091002
    Note: 416889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    2. Schoenmaker, Dirk & Reinders, Henk Jan & Van Dijk, Mathijs, 2020. "Is COVID-19 a threat to financial stability in Europe?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    4. Skufi, Lorena, 2020. "Financial sector and macroeconomics links in MEAM," MPRA Paper 120481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    5. J'ozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Papers 1601.06204, arXiv.org.
    6. Grigoli, Francesco & Mansilla, Mario & Saldías, Martín, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages and heterogeneous non-performing loans projections: An application to Ecuador," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 130-141.
    7. Tente, Natalia & von Westernhagen, Natalja & Slopek, Ulf, 2017. "M-PRESS-CreditRisk: A holistic micro- and macroprudential approach to capital requirements," Discussion Papers 15/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Jozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2014. "Aggregation operators for the measurement of systemic risk," Papers 1412.5452, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    9. Peter Sarlin & Henrik J. Nyman, 2013. "The process of macroprudential oversight in Europe," Papers 1312.7545, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2014.
    10. Chamizo, Álvaro & Novales, Alfonso, 2020. "Looking through systemic credit risk: Determinants, stress testing and market value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Peter Sarlin, 2016. "Visual Macroprudential Surveillance of Banks," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 257-264, October.
    12. NUCU, Anca Elena, 2011. "Managementul riscului de creditare: realizari actuale, analiza critica, sugestii [Credit risk management: current achievements, critical analysis, suggestions]," MPRA Paper 27932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kraemer-Eis, Helmut & Lang, Frank & Kyriakopoulos, Athanasios, 2012. "European Small Business Finance Outlook: May/2012," EIF Working Paper Series 2012/14, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    14. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
    15. Martín Saldias, 2011. "Sectoral credit risk in the euro area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Mezei, József & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 41-50.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic shock measurement; Portfolio credit risk measurement; stress testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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