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What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?

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  • Sánchez, Marcelo

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade variables are dominated by domestic shocks. External shocks on average explain a fraction of no more than 10% of the variation in the endogenous variables considered. Moreover, real imports fail to display a cross-regional pattern, while technology shocks appear to be the disturbances playing a somewhat more important role in explaining consumer prices developments. Consumer prices and - depending on the disturbance considered - real imports are the variables showing larger impulse responses to unit shocks. JEL Classification: C32, E32, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Sánchez, Marcelo, 2007. "What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?," Working Paper Series 730, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007730
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    2. Mutiu Gbade Rasaki, 2017. "A Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Model for the Nigerian Economy," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(36), pages 145-158, November.
    3. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    4. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    5. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "Identifying Shocks on the Economic Fluctuations in Indonesia and US: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 94018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jun 2015.
    6. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    7. Piotr Krupa & Paweł Skrzypczyński, 2012. "Are business cycles in the US and emerging economies synchronized?," NBP Working Papers 111, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    8. Novikova Natalia & Volkov Dmitry, 2012. "Modelling core inflation in Ukraine in 2003-2012," EERC Working Paper Series 12/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    9. Vonnák Balázs, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(61), pages 306-351, August.
    10. M Farid, 2010. "Does Export Pricing Explain ‘Fear of Floating’ in Small Open Emerging Market Economies?," Discussion Papers 10/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2009. "Characterising the inflation targeting regime in South Korea," Working Paper Series 1004, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; emerging markets; international trade; structural shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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