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Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence

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  • Moessner, Richhild

Abstract

This paper studies optimal discretionary policy with parameter uncertainty about inflation inertia. Optimal policy rules and impulse responses are presented within a hybrid New-Keynesian model estimated for the euro area by Smets (2003). We find that it may be optimal for policy to respond more aggressively to cost-push shocks and real interest rate shocks in the presence of uncertainty about inflation inertia, depending on the form of the central bank's objective function. Moreover, in the cases where optimal policy is not certainty equivalent, we find that inflation returns slightly more gradually to equilibrium following a shock when the degree of inflation inertia is uncertain. JEL Classification: E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Optimal discretionary policy and uncertainty about inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 540, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005540
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Casares, 2006. "A close look at model-dependent monetary policy design," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Sep), pages 451-470.
    2. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3218-3252, October.
    3. Levin, Andrew T. & Moessner, Richhild, 2005. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview," Working Paper Series 539, European Central Bank.
    4. Naoto Soma, 2021. "Parameter Uncertainty and Effective Lower Bound Risk," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2010. "Uncertainty About the Persistence of Inflation," Working Papers 091, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    7. E. Dhyne, 2005. "Inflation persistence and price-setting in the euro area : results of the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 17-37, December.
    8. Séverine Menguy, 2009. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 121-141.
    9. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation persistence; monetary policy; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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