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Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules

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  • Walsh, Carl E.

Abstract

In this paper, I evaluate the performance deterioration that occurs when the central bank employs an optimal targeting rule that is based on incorrect parameter values. I focus on two parameters - the degree of inflation inertia and the degree of price stickiness. I explicitly account for the effects of the structural parameters on the objective function used to evaluate outcomes, as well as on the model's behavioral equations. The costs of using simple rules relative to the costs of parameter misspecification are also assessed. JEL Classification: E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Walsh, Carl E., 2005. "Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules," Working Paper Series 477, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005477
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp477.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
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    11. Ignazio Angeloni & Günter Coenen & Frank Smets, 2003. "Persistence, The Transmission Mechanism And Robust Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 527-549, November.
    12. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2003. "Modeling Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1087-1122, September.
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    14. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Central Bank's Objective Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 215, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
    16. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    17. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amano, Robert, 2007. "Inflation persistence and monetary policy: A simple result," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 26-31, January.
    2. Paustian, Matthias & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2008. "Optimal interest rate stabilization in a basic sticky-price model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3166-3191, October.
    3. Paola Mariell Brens Ortega, 2020. "An Econometric Analysis of a Calibrated Macroeconomic Model for the Dominican Republic: A Closer Look into Monetary Policy," Documentos de Trabajo 18253, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
    4. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2009. "Robustifying learnability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 296-316, February.
    5. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, 2010. "Debt Nonneutrality, Policy Interactions, And Macroeconomic Stability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 461-474, May.
    6. Dennis, Richard & Ravenna, Federico, 2008. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1964-1994, June.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Sep), pages 613-626.
    8. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2010. "Should inflation-targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 460-485, April.
    9. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2009. "Timeless perspective vs discretionary policymaking when the degree of inflation persistence is unknown," Discussion Paper Series 2009_14, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2009.
    10. Juha Kilponen & Kai Leitemo, 2008. "Model Uncertainty and Delegation: A Case for Friedman's "k"-Percent Money Growth Rule?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 547-556, March.
    11. Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2011. "Timeless perspective versus discretionary policymaking when the degree of inflation persistence is unknown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2432-2438.
    12. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2009. "Monetary policy rules in theory and in practice: evidence from the UK and the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2037-2046.
    13. Schabert, Andreas, 2005. "Discretionary Policy, Multiple Equilibria, and Monetary Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 5400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Robustness in monetary policymaking: a case for the Friedman rule," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2006, Bank of Finland.
    15. Kilponen, Juha & Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Robustness in monetary policymaking : a case for the Friedman rule," Research Discussion Papers 4/2006, Bank of Finland.
    16. Pelin Ilbas, 2012. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 440-473, April.
    17. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-072 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. P ez-Farrell, Juan, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: Is Zero the Optimal Perception of Inflation Inertia?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    21. Ramzi Drissi, 2014. "Robust Monetary Policy in An Uncertain Economic Environment: Evidence from Tunisian Economy," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 969-986, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    misspecification; monetary policy; robustness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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