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Estimating and analysing currency options implied risk-neutral density functions for the largest new EU member states

Author

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  • Castrén, Olli

Abstract

This paper uses data on currency options prices for the exchange rates of the three largest new EU member states Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary vis-à-vis the euro and the US dollar to estimate the risk-neutral density (RND) functions and the density interval bands. Analysing the RNDs, we find that only some of the implied moments on the Polish zloty exchange rate systematically move around policy events, while the implied moments on the RNDs on the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint show more systematic changes. Regarding the HUF/EUR currency pair, monetary policy news have a significant impact on all moments, while changes in implied standard deviation signal a higher probability of interest rate changes by the Hungarian central bank. The more marked results for HUF/EUR exchange rate could reflect the fixed exchange rate regime prevailing throughout the sample period. JEL Classification: E52, F31, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Castrén, Olli, 2005. "Estimating and analysing currency options implied risk-neutral density functions for the largest new EU member states," Working Paper Series 440, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005440
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp440.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan HANOUSEK & Evžen KOČENDA, 2009. "Public investment and growth in New EU member states: an overview," Departmental Working Papers 2009-23, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
    3. Değerli, Ahmet & Fendoğlu, Salih, 2015. "Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-179.
    4. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "CaninformationonthedistributionofZARreturnsbeusedtoimproveSARBsZARforecasts," Working Papers 11035, South African Reserve Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency options data; Foreign exchange rate market sentiment; monetary policy news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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