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Non-standard central bank loss functions, skewed risks, and certainty equivalence

Author

Listed:
  • Backé, Peter
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

This paper sets out to investigate the role of additive uncertainty under plausible non-standard central bank loss functions over future inflation. Building on a substantial body of evidence in the economic psychology literature, this paper postulates (i) period-by-period loss functions that are non-convex, I.e. displaying diminishing or non-increasing sensitivity to losses, and (ii) non-linear weighing of probabilities, hence departing from the expected utility paradigm. The main conclusion of the study is that if the additive uncertainty is caused by a non-normal distributed additive shock, for instance if the probability distribution of the shock is skewed, then with these departures from the quadratic function the principle of certainty equivalence does not hold anymore. Thus, it appears that with additive uncertainty of the non-normal type the assumption of a quadratic loss function for the central banker may not be as innocuous as it is commonly regarded. JEL Classification: E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Backé, Peter & Stracca, Livio, 2002. "Non-standard central bank loss functions, skewed risks, and certainty equivalence," Working Paper Series 129, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2002129
    Note: 508510
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp129.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Carolyn A. Wilkins, 2017. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory," Discussion Papers 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    2. Osama Sweidan, 2008. "The Asymmetric Loss Function and the Central Banks' Ability in Developing Countries," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 387-403.
    3. Alberto Locarno, 2007. "Imperfect Knowledge, Adaptive Learning, and the Bias Against Activist Monetary Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 47-85, September.
    4. Weitzman Nagar, 2007. "Asymmetry in Monetary Policy: An Asymmetric Objective Function and a New-Keynesian Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2007.02, Bank of Israel.
    5. Livio Stracca, 2002. "Behavioural Finance and Aggregate Market Behaviour: Where do we Stand?," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/10, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    6. Stracca, Livio, 2004. "Behavioral finance and asset prices: Where do we stand?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 373-405, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    certainty equivalence; economic psychology; monetary policy; non-quadratic loss functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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