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Financial shocks and the macroeconomy: heterogeneity and non-linearities

Author

Listed:
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Jeanfils, Philippe
  • Haavio, Markus
  • Ĉervená, Marianna
  • Guarda, Paolo
  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • D'Agostino, Antonello
  • Valderrama, Maria Teresa
  • Ortega, Eva
  • Hubrich, Kirstin
  • Valentinyiné Endrész, Marianna

Abstract

This paper analyses the transmission of financial shocks to the macro-economy. The role of macro-financial linkages is investigated from an empirical perspective for the euro area as a whole, for individual euro area member countries and for other EU and OECD countries. The following key economic questions are addressed: 1) Which financial shocks have the largest impact on output over the full sample on average? 2) Are financial developments leading real activity? 3) Is there heterogeneity or a common pattern in macro-financial linkages across the euro area and do these linkages vary over time? 4) Do cross-country spillovers matter? 5) Is the transmission of financial shocks different during episodes of high stress than it is in normal times, i.e. is there evidence of non-linearities? In summary, it is found that real asset prices are significant leading indicators of real activity whereas the latter leads loan developments. Furthermore, evidence is presented that macro-financial linkages are heterogeneous across countries JEL Classification: C43, D11

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccarelli, Matteo & Jeanfils, Philippe & Haavio, Markus & Ĉervená, Marianna & Guarda, Paolo & Mendicino, Caterina & D'Agostino, Antonello & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Ortega, Eva & Hubrich, Kirstin &, 2013. "Financial shocks and the macroeconomy: heterogeneity and non-linearities," Occasional Paper Series 143, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2013143
    Note: 224580
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2015. "Financial sector and output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 235-263.
    2. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin‐Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    3. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Giordano, Claire & Marinucci, Marco & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The macro determinants of firms' and households' investment: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 118-133.
    5. Valerie Vandermeulen & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Trend Capital when Goods and Capital Market Frictions Exist," European Economy - Discussion Papers 145, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    7. Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Evgenidis, Anastasios & Vartholomatou, Konstantina, 2018. "Financial and monetary stability across Euro-zone and BRICS: An exogenous threshold VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 386-393.
    8. Kirstin Hubrich & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2022. "The Transmission of Financial Shocks and Leverage of Financial Institutions: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Framework," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2019. "Decomposing global yield curve co-movement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 500-513.
    10. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    11. Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao & Dimitris Korobilis, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets?," Working Papers 2015_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2022. "Financial cycles across G7 economies: A view from wavelet analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    13. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    14. Leroy, Aurélien & Pop, Adrian, 2019. "Macro-financial linkages: The role of the institutional framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 75-97.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Thompson, Kirsten & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2016. "Testing the asymmetric effects of financial conditions in South Africa: A nonlinear vector autoregression approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-43.
    16. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    19. Markus Haavio & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2014. "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 407-412, April.
    20. Bluwstein, Kristina, 2017. "Asymmetric Macro-Financial Spillovers," Working Paper Series 337, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    21. Ozge Akinci & Albert Queraltó, 2014. "Banks, Capital Flows and Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-468 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.
    24. Paolo Guarda & Alban Moura, 2019. "Measuring real and financial cycles in Luxembourg: An unobserved components approach," BCL working papers 126, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    25. Ciccarelli Matteo & Ortega Eva & Valderrama Maria Teresa, 2016. "Commonalities and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 231-275, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial shocks; heterogeneity; lead-lag relationships; macro-financial linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory

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