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Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition

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  • Gani Aldashev
  • Giovanni Mastrobuoni

Abstract

In close elections, a sufficiently high share of invalid ballots - if driven by votermistakes or electoral fraud - can jeopardize the electoral outcome. We study how thecloseness of electoral race relates to the share of invalid ballots, under the traditionalpaper-ballot hand-counted voting technology. Using a large dataset from the Italianparliamentary elections in 1994-2001, we find a strong robust negative relationshipbetween the margin of victory of the leading candidate over the nearest rival andthe share of invalid ballots. We argue that this relationship is not driven by votermistakes, protest, or electoral fraud. The explanation that garners most supportis that of rational allocation of effort by election officers and party representatives,with higher rates of detection of invalid ballots in close elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Gani Aldashev & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2015. "Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-39, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/219783
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cantoni, Enrico & Gazzè, Ludovica & Schafer, Jerome, 2021. "Turnout in concurrent elections: Evidence from two quasi-experiments in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Tina Fransman, 2021. "Voting and protest tendencies associated with changes in service delivery," Working Papers 08/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    3. Harka, Elona & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2022. "Studying more to vote less. Education and voter turnout in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Francesco Armillei & Enrico Cavallotti, 2021. "Concurrent elections and voting behaviour: evidence from an Italian referendum," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21164, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2012. "The Causal Impact Of Closeness On Electoral Participation Exploiting The Italian Dual Ballot System," Working Papers 201203, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vote counting; invalid ballots; election officers; party representatives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption

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