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Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision

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  • Hill , Brian
  • Bradley , Richard
  • Helgeson, Casey

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hill , Brian & Bradley , Richard & Helgeson, Casey, 2016. "Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision," HEC Research Papers Series 1131, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1131
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    Cited by:

    1. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    2. Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics," Working Papers 616, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Borgonovo, E. & Cappelli, V. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M., 2018. "Risk analysis and decision theory: A bridge," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 280-293.
    4. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate; change; confidence;
    All these keywords.

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