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Accuracy of growth forecasts for transition countries: Assessing ten years of EBRD forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Libor Krkoska

    (European Bank of Reconstruction and Development)

  • Utku Teksoz

    (European Bank of Reconstruction and Development)

Abstract

This paper analyses the accuracy of GDP growth forecasts prepared by the EBRD for 25 transition countries between 1994 and 2004. It provides the first comprehensive statistical analysis of output growth forecasts for transition countries in central and eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The analysis finds that EBRD forecasts are mostly unbiased and efficient, that forecast errors are not autocorrelated and do not depend on the value of the forecasted variable. In addition, it shows that forecast accuracy has improved with progress in transition as well as with the expansion in the information domain. The Russian crisis was the only clear unexpected economic shock in the available time series. The EBRD’s forecast accuracy for late within-year GDP forecasts were found to be better by 0.4 percentage points than the forecast accuracy of other institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Libor Krkoska & Utku Teksoz, 2005. "Accuracy of growth forecasts for transition countries: Assessing ten years of EBRD forecasting," Working Papers 94, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebd:wpaper:94
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; GDP growth; bias and efficiency; transition; EBRD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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