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Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts

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  • Mehdi Shiva
  • Andrzej Kwiatkowski

Abstract

We investigate the causes of an internal conflict by adding ambient climate factors to the existing bundle of most significant variables. It turns out that – controlling for possible associations – temperature could actually induce a conflict. We emphasise that temperature could not be a dominant reason in starting a conflict; however, it could escalate the chances when other factors are present. This paper mentions some of the related psychological studies to support this claim. We also show that grievance factors could actually be rightfully effective in starting an internal conflict alongside greed based reasons. In the end, we believe that it could be constructive to study ambient factors more often in economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Shiva & Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2014. "Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 282, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    • Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:282
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; civil war; onset of conlict; internal armed conflict; climate; temperature;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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