IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/drx/wpaper/2025001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Gravity Equations: Theory Implications, Econometric Developments, and Practical Recommendations

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Larch

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Serge Shikher

    (United States International Trade Commission)

  • Yoto Yotov

    (School of Economics, Drexel University)

Abstract

We trace the developments in the empirical trade literature to make fifteen recommendations for estimating gravity equations, which are structured in three categories: data, estimating equation, and heterogeneity. We also offer practical tips and identify areas where further research is needed. Based on these recommendations, we specify a comprehensive estimating model, which can serve as a benchmark for gravity estimations even when it is not possible to implement all of our recommendations. The proposed methods should be useful for gravity estimations beyond international trade, e.g., migration, foreign investment, cross-border patenting, and other flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto Yotov, 2025. "Estimating Gravity Equations: Theory Implications, Econometric Developments, and Practical Recommendations," Working Papers 2025001, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  • Handle: RePEc:drx:wpaper:2025001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.lebow.drexel.edu/sites/default/files/2025-01/wp2025001-gravity-equations.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2025
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2018. "The Trade Effects of Border Controls: Evidence from the European Schengen Agreement," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 335-351, March.
    2. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2750-2782, October.
    3. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    4. Feicheng Wang & Zheng Wang & Zhuo Zhou, 2021. "Business flies: The trade promoting effect of air connectivity," Discussion Papers 2021-04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    6. Zimmermann, Christian, 1997. "International real business cycles among heterogeneous countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 319-356, February.
    7. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
    8. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-160, February.
    9. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    10. Tamara Gurevitch & Peter R. Herman & Farid Toubal & Yoto Yotov, 2020. "One Nation, One Language? Domestic Language Diversity, Trade and Welfare," Working Papers 2020-15, CEPII research center.
    11. Elhanan Helpman & Oleg Itskhoki & Stephen Redding, 2008. "Wages, Unemployment and Inequality with Heterogeneous Firms and Workers," NBER Working Papers 14122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wang, Feicheng & Wang, Zheng & Zhou, Zhou, 2021. "Business flies: The trade promoting effect of air connectivity," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 425, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    14. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 6, number 978-3-030-53953-5, July.
    15. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Timini, Jacopo & Vidal, Elena, 2021. "Structural gravity and trade agreements: Does the measurement of domestic trade matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "The evolution of structural gravity: The workhorse model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 578-603, October.
    2. Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "The Variation of Gravity within Countries (or 15 Reasons Why Gravity Should Be Estimated with Domestic Trade Flows)," CESifo Working Paper Series 9057, CESifo.
    3. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    6. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "On the role of domestic trade flows for estimating the gravity model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 526-540, July.
    7. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    8. Fontagné, Lionel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2021. "GVCs and the endogenous geography of RTAs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    10. Aaditya Mattoo & Alen Mulabdic & Michele Ruta, 2022. "Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(3), pages 1598-1637, August.
    11. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2023. "Unveiling the trade and welfare effects of regional services trade agreements: A structural gravity approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Byungyul Park & John Beghin, 2023. "Exploring the impact of economic integration agreements through extreme bounds analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, February.
    13. Julia Spornberger, 2022. "EU integration and structural gravity: A comprehensive quantification of the border effect on trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 915-938, September.
    14. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Yoto Yotov & Mario Larch & James Anderson, 2015. "Growth and Trade: A Structural Estimation Framework," 2015 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Paniagua, Jordi & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Santana-Gallego, María, 2022. "Does happiness drive tourism decisions?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    19. Mario Larch & Yoto Yotov, 2017. "On the impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A quantitative analysis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 54-73,74-92.
    20. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    21. Qingtun Kong & Masaaki Yamada & Jiajun Wang & Muzi Li & Haisong Nie, 2024. "Roles of Economic Integration and Climate Distance in Agri-Food Trade: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, December.
    22. Festus Ebo Turkson, 2012. "Using Observable Trade Data to Measure Bilateral Trade Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers 12/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    23. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Baron, Opher & Callen, Jeffrey L. & Segal, Dan, 2023. "Does the bullwhip matter economically? A cross-sectional firm-level analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity equation; Estimation; Recommendations; Practical tips;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drx:wpaper:2025001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yoto V. Yotov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbdreus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.