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A Possible Explanation of the ‘Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle’: A Common Solution to Three Major Macroeconomic Puzzles?

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  • Charles Yuji Horioka
  • Nicholas Ford

Abstract

Meese and Rogoff (1983) and subsequent studies find that economic fundamentals are apparently not able to explain exchange rate movements, but we argue that this so-called “Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle” arose because researchers such as Meese and Rogoff (1983) did not use the right fundamentals and because they did not allow for the forward-looking nature of exchange rate determination. Further, because they apparently were not aware that financial markets by themselves could not equalise interest rates across countries, they did not properly appreciate that the exchange rate is strongly influenced by agents’ expectations of aggregated differences in local returns. Thus, we believe that the same underlying explanation provided by Ford (2015) and Ford and Horioka (2016a and 2016b) for the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) Puzzle and the PPP Puzzle--namely that financial markets alone cannot achieve net transfers of financial capital and cannot equalise real interest rates across countries--also helps explain why previous attempts to connect changes in the exchange rate to economic fundamentals have not been successful, and so can also be said to contribute to solving the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle.

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  • Charles Yuji Horioka & Nicholas Ford, 2016. "A Possible Explanation of the ‘Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle’: A Common Solution to Three Major Macroeconomic Puzzles?," ISER Discussion Paper 0977, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0977
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    2. Nicholas Ford & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2017. "The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-97, January.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    4. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    5. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 660-672, November.
    6. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    7. MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 673-691, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Ford, Nicholas, 2017. "The Solution to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," AGI Working Paper Series 2017-17, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    2. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Kunovac, Davor, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2003, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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