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A Comment on Nishimura, Nakajima, and Kiyota's "Does the Natural Selection Mechanism Still Work in Severe Recessions? Examination of the Japanese Economy in the 1990s"

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  • Tae Okada
  • Charles Yuji Horioka

Abstract

Nishimura, Nakajima, and Kiyota (2005) analyze the entry/exit behavior patterns of Japanese firms during the 1990s and find that relatively efficient (high total factor productivity (TFP)) firms exited while relatively inefficient (low TFP) firms survived during the banking-crisis period of 1996-97. They conclude from this finding that the natural selection mechanism (NSM) apparently malfunctions during severe recessions, but we offer a much more plausible interpretation: the NSM continued to function effectively even during this period, but aberrant banking practices (in particular, "forbearance lending" ("evergreening") and the "forcible withdrawal of loans" and/or the "reluctance to lend") caused a shift in the type of natural selection from "directional selection" to "disruptive selection," with the most efficient (highest TFP) firms as well as the least efficient (lowest TFP) firms being favored and firms of intermediate efficiency and TFP being selected against.

Suggested Citation

  • Tae Okada & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2007. "A Comment on Nishimura, Nakajima, and Kiyota's "Does the Natural Selection Mechanism Still Work in Severe Recessions? Examination of the Japanese Economy in the 1990s"," ISER Discussion Paper 0682, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0682
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2007/DP0682.pdf
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    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    2. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Uchida, Hirofumi, 2020. "Natural selection: A review of studies on firms’ exit and efficiency," MPRA Paper 103938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck, 2021. "Dysfunctional Markets: A Spray of Prey Perspective," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 797-819, July.
    4. Masami Imai, 2009. "Political Influence and Declarations of Bank Insolvency in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 131-158, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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