IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp279.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Polish Zloty and Currency Speculation

Author

Listed:
  • Tatiana Fic

Abstract

This paper uses Markov switching models to study short-run movements of the Polish zloty and speculative phenomena in Poland, that is, to investigate whether the exchange rate is "contaminated" by a speculative bubble. The zloty movements are examined in terms of so-called long swings - periods of prevailing appreciation and depreciation of the exchange rate. Speculative fluctuations of the zloty are investigated within two different frameworks: the uncovered interest parity hypothesis and a model of a zloty bubble. The results obtained suggest that the zloty exchange rate is characterised by interweaving periods of appreciation and depreciation with different durations. The uncovered interest parity hypothesis does not hold. Periods were identified, in which the zloty exhibited "bubble properties".

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana Fic, 2002. "The Polish Zloty and Currency Speculation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 279, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38623.de/dp279.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; exchange rates; speculative bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.