IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2001-032.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Towards a theory of lowest-low fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • José A. Ortega
  • Francesco C. Billari

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Lowest-low fertility, defined as a period total fertility rate below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s and is likely to expand further. In this paper we argue that the emergence and persistence of this new phenomenon is due to the combination and interaction of four factors. First, tempo- and compositional distortions reduce the TFR below the associated level of cohort fertility, and these distortions can be quantified with appropriate adjusted measures. Second, late childbearing has become a rational response to increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood. Third, social interaction reinforces the behavioral adjustment of individuals, and it can lead to postponement transitions with large and persistent changes in the mean age at birth. Fourth, delayed childbearing is associated with postponement-quantum interactions that reduce completed fertility. We conclude the paper with some speculations about future trends in lowest-low fertility countries and candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & José A. Ortega & Francesco C. Billari, 2001. "Towards a theory of lowest-low fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-032, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-032
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-032.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marina Zannella & Antonella Guarneri & Cinzia Castagnaro, 2019. "Leaving and Losing a Job After Childbearing in Italy: A Comparison Between 2005 and 2012," Review of European Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(4), pages 1-1, December.
    2. YOUM Yoosik, 2011. "A Network Approach to the Economic Models of Fertility," Discussion papers 11062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.